Leaning risk-offsince Oct 7
Risk-on ratios down from 2 a month ago.
Changed in the past month: risk-on → risk-off; risk-off → improving; risk-off → improving; risk-on → risk-off; improving → weakening; weakening → risk-off.
| Ratio | ||
|---|---|---|
| Risk-off · since Oct 7 | −4.2% | |
| Risk-off · since Nov 4 | −23.5% | |
| Improving · since Nov 2 | +4.2% | |
| Improving · since Oct 22 | +8.4% | |
| Risk-off · since Nov 5 · near a flip | −2.9% | |
| Weakening · since Nov 5 | −3.7% | |
| Risk-off · since Oct 21 | −6.9% | |
| Risk-off · since Oct 29 | −1.1% |
Each ratio puts a risk-on asset over a defensive one, so a rising line means more appetite for risk. Ratio levels and their moves aren't gains or losses, so they carry a sign rather than a colour. The 1-year lines draw the 200-day dotted. Near a flip: an average that decides the state is within 0.5%, or the 50-day's direction decides it and is within ±0.2%.
XLY / XLP Discretionary vs staples. Spending people can put off against spending they can't. Rises when investors expect a stronger consumer. Amazon and Tesla are about a third of XLY, so their moves weigh on it.
SPHB / SPLV High beta vs low volatility. The S&P 500's 100 highest-beta stocks against its 100 least volatile: the plainest read of appetite inside the index.
IWM / SPY Small vs large caps. Small caps borrow more and lean on the US economy, so they lead when credit is easy and growth expectations rise.
RSP / SPY Equal weight vs cap weight. The average S&P 500 stock against the index. Rises when gains spread beyond the largest names. A rally led by a few mega-caps can be risk-on while this falls: it reads participation as much as appetite.
HYG / IEF High yield vs Treasuries. Junk bonds against Treasuries. Falls when lenders want more to fund weaker companies, and often turns before stocks do. HYG carries about half IEF's duration, so a fast rise in yields can lift this without any credit appetite, as in 2022.
HG / GC Copper vs gold. Industrial demand against the haven metal. Tends to move with growth expectations and the 10-year yield. Front-month futures, so contract rolls add small steps.
EEM / SPY Emerging markets vs the S&P 500. Global appetite outside the US, helped by a weaker dollar. A US-led rally can be risk-on while this falls.
AUD / JPY Australian dollar vs yen. A high-yielding, commodity-linked currency against the funding and haven currency. Carry trades unwind into the yen when fear rises.
Daily closes from Yahoo Finance, adjusted for dividends, so the ETF ratios are total return. Copper and gold are front-month futures and AUD/JPY is the spot rate. The two legs are matched date for date before dividing, since futures, ETFs and currencies keep different holidays, and the averages count the ratio's own sessions.
While markets trade, the last point is the latest delayed quote, read for both legs at once; the history behind it refreshes hourly. 1W, 1M and 3M compare with the last session on or before 7, 30 and 91 days ago.
This page reads appetite across markets. For the S&P 500's own trend and distribution days see REGM, for participation inside it BRDH, and for the VIX VOL. Not investment advice.