| Meeting | Implied rate | Move | Odds | From today | Moves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | 3.925% | +4bp | Hold 82% · Hike 25bp 18% | +4bp | +0.2 |
| Dec 9, 2026★ | 4.129% | +20bp | Hike 25bp 82% · Hold 18% | +25bp | +1.0 |
| Jan 27, 2027 | 4.225% | +10bp | Hold 62% · Hike 25bp 38% | +34bp | +1.4 |
| Mar 17, 2027★ | 4.402% | +18bp | Hike 25bp 71% · Hold 29% | +52bp | +2.1 |
| Apr 28, 2027 | 4.495% | +9bp | Hold 63% · Hike 25bp 37% | +62bp | +2.5 |
| Jun 9, 2027★ | 4.595% | +10bp | Hold 60% · Hike 25bp 40% | +71bp | +2.9 |
| Jul 28, 2027 | 4.630% | +4bp | Hold 86% · Hike 25bp 14% | +75bp | +3.0 |
| Sep 15, 2027★ | 4.680% | +5bp | Hold 80% · Hike 25bp 20% | +80bp | +3.2 |
| Oct 27, 2027 | 4.675% | −1bp | Hold 98% · Cut 25bp 2% | +79bp | +3.2 |
| Dec 8, 2027★ | 4.665% | −1bp | Hold 96% · Cut 25bp 4% | +79bp | +3.1 |
★ meetings with new projections (dot plot). Each month's futures price is 100 minus the average effective rate traders expect for that month. A meeting's outcome comes from the next month's contract when no meeting follows, otherwise by splitting its month into the days before and after the decision. Odds split the priced move between the two nearest quarter-point outcomes.