Net is the speculators' long minus short contracts: leveraged funds in financial futures (TFF report), managed money in commodities (Disaggregated report). The COT index puts it in its own 3-year range, 0 the most short and 100 the most long.
| Crowding | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity indexes and VIX | ||||||||
| −366,870 | +33,009 | −18.2% | 46 | 66 | −2.54% | −693,326 | ||
| +6,114 | +11,733 | +2.0% | 95, crowded long | 100 | Crowded long | −4.23% | −108,668 | |
| −55,080 | −6,999 | −12.3% | 46 | 90 | −2.26% | +29,377 | ||
| +3,151 | +1,027 | +3.4% | 63 | 94 | −0.97% | −17,169 | ||
| −31,479 | −5,145 | −8.5% | 64 | 33 | +23.09% | +65,392 | ||
| Rates | ||||||||
| −1,450,892 | −93,234 | −32.5% | 81 | 64 | +0.18% | −468,570 | ||
| −2,315,516 | −237,656 | −34.5% | 73 | 7 | +0.39% | −833,376 | ||
| −2,262,310 | −35,035 | −38.0% | 19 | 0 | +0.59% | −611,884 | ||
| −166,257 | −15,864 | −8.6% | 96, crowded long, net short | 93 | Crowded long · net short | +0.84% | −239,314 | |
| −2,604,199 | −68,214 | −19.9% | 8, crowded short | 24 | Crowded short | — | +2,858,645 | |
| Currencies | ||||||||
| −78,559 | −6,985 | −9.0% | 0, crowded short | 0 | Crowded short | −0.35% | −109,285 | |
| −14,817 | −187 | −3.9% | 65 | 73 | +0.33% | −122,884 | ||
| +26,663 | +9,468 | +10.9% | 41 | 51 | −0.48% | +103,193 | ||
| +50,106 | +1,692 | +15.2% | 82 | 70 | −1.47% | +60,967 | ||
| −86,302 | +10,445 | −24.8% | 19 | 25 | −0.79% | +67,754 | ||
| +71,381 | +3,046 | +25.2% | 83 | 54 | +0.96% | +21,184 | ||
| +3,311 | +153 | +6.7% | 55 | 74 | +0.40% | −19,814 | ||
| Crypto | ||||||||
| −2,591 | +1,388 | −14.8% | 100, crowded long, net short | 100 | Crowded long · net short | −2.66% | +479 | |
| −3,699 | +326 | −16.2% | 82 | 93 | −2.33% | +7,406 | ||
| Metals | ||||||||
| +103,614 | −1,948 | +26.0% | 38 | 20 | +3.53% | −204,902 | ||
| +4,035 | +714 | +3.5% | 22 | 6 | +4.80% | −34,756 | ||
| +34,890 | −5,685 | +10.6% | 62 | 0 | −1.86% | −41,923 | ||
| −1,283 | −3,048 | −1.4% | 39 | 0 | +7.30% | −9,256 | ||
| Energy | ||||||||
| +21,728 | −9,400 | +1.1% | 21 | 0 | −5.98% | −111,277 | ||
| −225,359 | −19,042 | −13.4% | 0, crowded short | 0 | Crowded short | +3.73% | +243,049 | |
| +86,971 | −4,471 | +27.2% | 87 | 70 | −5.71% | −76,931 | ||
| Grains | ||||||||
| +8,795 | −72,318 | +0.5% | 47 | 17 | −0.06% | −137,516 | ||
| +142,727 | −51,054 | +14.9% | 73 | 46 | −0.71% | −143,478 | ||
| −87,126 | −12,520 | −16.3% | 27 | 0 | −1.54% | +64,325 | ||
From the CFTC's Commitments of Traders, futures only. Financial futures show leveraged funds (hedge funds, CTAs and other money managers) from the Traders in Financial Futures report, against dealers; commodities show managed money (CTAs, commodity pools and hedge funds) from the Disaggregated report, against commercials (producers, merchants, processors and swap dealers). Net is long minus short contracts; spread positions are left out. The COT index is (net − low) ÷ (high − low) × 100 over the last 156 weekly reports (about three years), or the last 26 for context: 90 or more reads as crowded long, 10 or less as crowded short. Positions are as of Tuesday and published Friday at 3:30pm ET (a day or so later in a holiday week), so they are three to ten days old when you read them. In Treasuries, the equity indexes, bitcoin and ether, much of the leveraged funds' short is a basis trade against the cash market rather than a bet on direction; the index compares each market only with its own history, so a standing short alone doesn't read as crowded. Crowding is a condition, not a signal: the contrarian method waits for news the crowd should like to fail to move the price, then for the weekly chart to turn. Not investment advice.
Leveraged funds are net short 78,559 contracts (9.0% of open interest), from 71,574 short a week before.
That's in the bottom tenth of its three-year range (index 0): crowded short.
It's at the bottom of its six-month range too, so the build is current.
Crowding alone isn't a trade: the method waits for news the crowd should like to fail to move the price, then for the weekly chart to turn.
Leveraged funds: hedge funds, CTAs and other money managers. Dealers: banks and dealers on the sell side. Asset managers: pension funds, insurers and mutual funds. CFTC code 099741. 6E=F has the chart.