| Time | Ctry | Event | Actual | Consensus | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Dec 16 | |||||
| 09:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexThe Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 0.20 | 6.40 | 31.20 |
| 10:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMIThe Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies. The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants. An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an improvement, and below 50 indicates a deterioration. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. | 58.5 | 55.7 | 56.1 |
| 12:30 | US | 3-Month Bill AuctionThe figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned. U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid. Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security. | 4.250% | — | 4.300% |
| 12:30 | US | 6-Month Bill AuctionThe figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned. U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid. Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security. | 4.160% | — | 4.200% |
| Tuesday, Dec 17 | |||||
| 09:30 | US | ★Core Retail SalesCore Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered as a pace indicator for the U.S. economy. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 09:30 | US | Retail Control | 0.4% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| 09:30 | US | ★Retail SalesRetail Sales measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 3.80% | — | 2.90% |
| 09:30 | US | ★Retail SalesRetail Sales measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. It is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| 09:30 | US | ★Retail Sales Ex Gas/AutosRetail sales data represents total consumer purchase from retail stores. It provides valuable information about consumer spending which makes up the consumption part of GDP. The most volatile components like autos, gas prices andfood prices are often removed from the report to show more underlying demand patterns as changes in sales in these categories are frequently a result of price changes. It is not adjusted for inflation. Spending on services is not included. Rising retail sales indicate stronger economic growth. However, if theincrease is larger than forecast, it may be inflationary. | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 09:55 | US | RedbookThe Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. | 4.8% | — | 4.2% |
| 10:15 | US | Capacity Utilization RateThe Capacity Utilization Rate is the percentage of production capacity being utilized in the U.S.(available resources includes factories, mines and utilities). Capacity Utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy. It can also act as a leading indicator of consumer price inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 76.8% | 77.3% | 77.0% |
| 10:15 | US | Industrial ProductionIndustrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | -0.1% | 0.3% | -0.4% |
| 10:15 | US | Industrial ProductionIndustrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | -0.90% | 0.10% | -0.45% |
| 10:15 | US | Manufacturing ProductionManufacturing Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.7% |
| 11:00 | US | Business InventoriesBusiness Inventories measures the change in the worth of unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. A high reading can indicate a lack of consumer demand. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 11:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market IndexThe National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rates the relative level of current and future single-family home sales. The data is compiled from a survey of around 900 home builders. A reading above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales; below indicates a negative outlook. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 46 | 47 | 46 |
| 11:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Auto | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 13:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNowGDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model. | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 14:00 | US | 20-Year Bond AuctionThe figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the Treasury Bond auctioned. U.S. Treasury Bonds have maturities from ten up to 30 years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bond represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid. Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security. | 4.686% | — | 4.680% |
| 17:30 | US | API Weekly Crude Oil StockThe American Petroleum Institute reports inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks. The figure shows how much oil and product is available in storage.The indicator gives an overview of US petroleum demand. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected. If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected. | -4.700M | -1.850M | 0.499M |
| Wednesday, Dec 18 | |||||
| 08:00 | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateFixed 30-year mortgage lending rates for 80% loan-to-value mortgage (source by MBA). | 6.75% | — | 6.67% |
| 08:00 | US | MBA Mortgage ApplicationsMortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Applications measures the change in the number of new applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the reported week. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | -0.7% | — | 5.4% |
| 08:00 | US | MBA Purchase IndexMBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America. The Purchase Index includes all mortgages applications for the purchase of a single-family home. It covers the entire market, both conventional and government loans, and all products. The Purchase Index has proven to be a reliable indicator of impending home sales. | 157.1 | — | 154.9 |
| 08:00 | US | Mortgage Market IndexMBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America. The Market Index covers all mortgage applications during the week. This includes all conventional and government applications, all fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs), all adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), whether for a purchase or to refinance. | 224.0 | — | 225.5 |
| 08:00 | US | Mortgage Refinance IndexMBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America. The Refinance Index covers all mortgage applications to refinance an existing mortgage. It is the best overall gauge of mortgage refinancing activity. The Refinance Index includes conventional and government refinances, regardless of product (FRM or ARM) or coupon rate refinanced into or out of.Seasonal factors are less significant in refinances than in home sales, however holiday effects are considerable. | 617.5 | — | 634.0 |
| 09:30 | US | Building PermitsBuilding Permits is a report closely watched by economists and investors alike. Since all related factors associated with the construction of a building are important economic activities (for example, financing and employment), the building permit report can give a major hint as to the state of the economy in the near future. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. | 6.1% | — | -0.4% |
| 09:30 | US | Building PermitsBuilding Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 1.505M | 1.430M | 1.419M |
| 09:30 | US | Current AccountThe Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the USD. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | -310.9B | -286.0B | -275.0B |
| 09:30 | US | Housing StartsHousing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 1.289M | 1.350M | 1.312M |
| 09:30 | US | Housing StartsHousing Starts measures the change in the number of new constructions underway. The construction industry is one of the first to go into a recession when the economy declines but also to recover as conditions improve. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative | -1.8% | — | -3.2% |
| 11:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNowGDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model. | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 11:30 | US | Crude Oil InventoriesThe Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation. If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected. If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected. | -0.934M | -1.600M | -1.425M |
| 11:30 | US | EIA Refinery Crude Runs | -0.048M | — | -0.251M |
| 11:30 | US | Crude Oil Imports | -1.131M | — | -0.170M |
| 11:30 | US | Cushing Crude Oil InventoriesChange in the number of barrels of crude oil held in storage at the Cushing, Oklahoma during the past week. Storage levels at Cushing are important because it serves as the delivery point for the U.S. crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate. | 0.108M | — | -1.298M |
| 11:30 | US | Distillate Fuel Production | -0.135M | — | -0.086M |
| 11:30 | US | EIA Weekly Distillates StocksThe Energy Information Administration reports inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks. The figure shows how much oil and product is available in storage. The indicator gives an overview of US petroleum demand. | -3.180M | 0.800M | 3.235M |
| 11:30 | US | Gasoline Production | -0.173M | — | 0.549M |
| 11:30 | US | Heating Oil Stockpiles | -0.304M | — | 0.504M |
| 11:30 | US | EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates | -0.6% | — | -0.9% |
| 11:30 | US | Gasoline InventoriesGasoline Inventories measures the change in the number of barrels of commercial gasoline held in inventory by commercial firms during the reported week. The data influences the price of gasoline products which affects inflation. The data has no consistent effect, there are both inflationary and growth implications. | 2.348M | 2.000M | 5.086M |
| 15:00 | US | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.9% | — | 3.4% |
| 15:00 | US | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.4% | — | 2.9% |
| 15:00 | US | Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr | 3.1% | — | 2.9% |
| 15:00 | US | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 4.4% | — | 4.4% |
| 15:00 | US | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3.0% | — | 2.9% |
| 15:00 | US | ★FOMC Economic ProjectionsThis report includes the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years. An important part of the report is the breakdown of individual FOMC members' interest rate forecasts. | — | — | — |
| 15:00 | US | ★FOMC StatementThe U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement is the primary tool the panel uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of the vote on interest rates, discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes. A more dovish than expected statement could be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a more hawkish than expected statement could be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. | — | — | — |
| 15:00 | US | ★Fed Interest Rate DecisionFederal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD. | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.75% |
| 15:30 | US | ★FOMC Press Conference | — | — | — |
| Thursday, Dec 19 | |||||
| 09:30 | US | Continuing Jobless ClaimsContinuing Jobless Claims measures the number of unemployed individuals who qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. | 1,874K | 1,890K | 1,879K |
| 09:30 | US | ★Core PCE PricesThe Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices release measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 2.20% | 2.10% | 2.80% |
| 09:30 | US | Corporate ProfitsCorporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments is the net current-production income of organizations treated as corporations in the NIPA´s. These organizations consist of all entities required to file Federal corporate tax returns, including mutual financial institutions and cooperatives subject to Federal income tax; private noninsured pension funds; nonprofit institutions that primarily serve business; Federal Reserve banks; and federally sponsored credit agencies. With several differences, this income is measured as receipts less expenses as defined in Federal tax law. Among these differences: Receipts exclude capital gains and dividends received, expenses exclude depletion and capital losses and losses resulting from bad debts, inventory withdrawals are valued at replacement cost, and depreciation is on a consistent accounting basis and is valued at replacement cost using depreciation profiles based on empirical evidence on used-asset prices that generally suggest a geometric pattern of price declines. The taxes are measured on an accrual basis, net of applicable tax credits. Profits after tax is profits before tax less profits tax liability.It consists of dividends and undistributed corporate profits.Dividends is payments in cash or other assets, excluding the corporations´ own stock, that are made by corporations located in the U.S & abroad to stockholders who are U.S. residents. | -0.4% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 09:30 | US | ★GDPGross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency Frequency: Released monthly. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, second release and Final. Both the advance the second release are tagged as preliminary in the economic calendar. | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% |
| 09:30 | US | ★GDP Price IndexThe GDP Price Index measures the annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in gross domestic product.It is the broadest inflationary indicator. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% |
| 09:30 | US | ★GDP Sales | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| 09:30 | US | ★Initial Jobless ClaimsInitial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. | 220K | 229K | 242K |
| 09:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. As the week to week numbers might be very volatile, the four week moving average smooths the weekly data and used for the initial jobless claims metric A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. | 225.50K | — | 224.25K |
| 09:30 | US | ★PCE PricesThe Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices release measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% |
| 09:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexThe Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in Philadelphia. A level above zero on the index indicates improving conditions; below indicates worsening conditions. The data is compiled from a survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | -16.4 | 2.9 | -5.5 |
| 09:30 | US | Philly Fed Business ConditionsThe Philadelphia Fed Index, also known as the Business Outlook Survey, is a survey produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia which questions manufacturers on general business conditions. The index covers the Philadelphia, New Jersey, and Delaware region. Higher survey figures suggest higher production, which contribute to economic growth. Results are calculated as the difference between percentage scores with zero acting as the centerline point. As such, values greater than zero indicate growth, while values less than zero indicate contraction. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. | 30.7 | — | 56.6 |
| 09:30 | US | Philly Fed CAPEX IndexThe Philadelphia Fed Regional Index is an indicator that measures the current conditions in the manufacturing sector in the district of Philadelphia, which is the third largest in the United States. Arises from a survey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed on the general health of the economy and businesses. Participants must indicate in the interview, according to its assessment, the changes from the previous month and the forecast for the next six months. The general index indicates growth when it is above zero and contraction when is below zero. Then there are various components, such as the prices paid, prices received, employment, hours worked, new orders and backlog of those, the delivery time and shipment orders. | 18.80 | — | 24.90 |
| 09:30 | US | Philly Fed EmploymentThe Philly Fed Employment number is the employment component out of the Philly fed index, probably the most important component of the Index. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. | 6.6 | — | 8.6 |
| 09:30 | US | Philly Fed New OrdersThe Philadelphia Fed Regional Index is an indicator that measures the current conditions in the manufacturing sector in the district of Philadelphia, which is the third largest in the United States. Arises from a survey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed on the general health of the economy and businesses. Participants must indicate in the interview, according to its assessment, the changes from the previous month and the forecast for the next six months. The general index indicates growth when it is above zero and contraction when is below zero. Then there are various components, such as the prices paid, prices received, employment, hours worked, new orders and backlog of those, the delivery time and shipment orders. | -4.3 | — | 8.9 |
| 09:30 | US | Philly Fed Prices PaidThe Philadelphia Fed Regional Index is an indicator that measures the current conditions in the manufacturing sector in the district of Philadelphia, which is the third largest in the United States. Arises from a survey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed on the general health of the economy and businesses. Participants must indicate in the interview, according to its assessment, the changes from the previous month and the forecast for the next six months. The general index indicates growth when it is above zero and contraction when is below zero. Then there are various components, such as the prices paid, prices received, employment, hours worked, new orders and backlog of those, the delivery time and shipment orders. | 31.20 | — | 26.60 |
| 09:30 | US | Real Consumer SpendingReal Consumer Spending measures the inflation adjusted amount of money spent by households in the US economy. The spending includes durables, such as washing machines, and non durables, such as food. It is also known as consumption, and is measured monthly. John Maynard Keynes, the famous British economist, considered consumer spending to be the most important determinant of short-term demand in an economy. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% |
| 11:00 | US | Existing Home SalesExisting Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 4.15M | 4.09M | 3.96M |
| 11:00 | US | Existing Home SalesExisting Home Sales measures the change in the number of existing (not new) residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative | 4.8% | — | 3.4% |
| 11:00 | US | US Leading IndexThe composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components. | 0.3% | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| 11:30 | US | Natural Gas StorageThe Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Storage report measures the change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week. While this is a U.S. indicator it tends to have a greater impact on the Canadian dollar, due to Canada's sizable energy sector. If the increase in natural gas inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for natural gas prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected. If the increase in natural gas is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for natural gas prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected. | -125B | -123B | -190B |
| 12:00 | US | KC Fed Composite IndexThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City quarterly Survey of Manufacturers provides information on current manufacturing activity in the Tenth District (Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri). The accumulated results also help trace longer term trends. The survey monitors about 300 manufacturing plants selected according to geographic distribution, industry mix, and size. Survey results reveal changes in several indicators of manufacturing activity, including production and shipments, and identify changes in prices of raw materials and finished products.The survey is conducted during the first month of each quarter.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | -4 | — | -2 |
| 12:00 | US | KC Fed Manufacturing IndexThe Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City quarterly Survey of Manufacturers provides information on current manufacturing activity in the Tenth District. The survey monitors about 300 manufacturing plants selected according to geographic distribution, industry mix, and size. Survey results reveal changes in several indicators of manufacturing activity, including production and shipments, and identify changes in prices of raw materials and finished products. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative | -5 | — | -4 |
| 12:30 | US | 4-Week Bill AuctionThe figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned. U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid. Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security. | 4.230% | — | 4.240% |
| 12:30 | US | 8-Week Bill AuctionThe figures displayed in the calendar represent the rate on the Treasury Bill auctioned.U.S. Treasury Bills have maturities of a few days to one year. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bill represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bill for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid. Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security. | 4.230% | — | 4.260% |
| 14:05 | US | 5-Year TIPS AuctionThe U.S. Treasury has been issuing Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) since 1997. TIPS provide investors with protection against inflation: the principal of the TIPS increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. The Treasury sells these securities at regularly scheduled auctions. Competitive bids at these single-price auctions determine the interest rate paid on each issue, which remains fixed. | 2.121% | — | 1.670% |
| 17:00 | US | US Foreign Buying, T-bondsNet purchases of U.S treasury bonds & notes by major foreign sector. (Negative figures indicate net sales by foreigners to U.S residents or a net outflow of capital from the United States.) A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 92.10B | — | 77.00B |
| 17:00 | US | Overall Net Capital FlowThis indicator shows the Sum of [(U.S. securities + Foreign stocks and bonds (Negative figures indicate net sales by foreigners to U.S residents or a net outflow of capital from the United States.) Minus estimated unrecorded principal repayments to foreigners on domestic corporate and agency asset-backed securities + estimated foreign acquisitions of U.S. equities through stock swaps - estimated U.S. acquisitions of foreign equities through stock swaps + increase in nonmarketable Treasury Bonds and Notes Issued to Official Institutions and Other Residents of Foreign Countries)+(monthly changes in banks' and broker/dealers' custody liabilities.)+(TIC, Change in Banks' Own Net Dollar- Denominated Liabilities)] TIC data cover most components of international financial flows, but do not include data on direct investment flows, which are collected and published by the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 203.60B | — | 398.90B |
| 17:00 | US | TIC Net Long-Term TransactionsTreasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreign investors. Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 152.3B | — | 216.1B |
| 17:00 | US | TIC Net Long-Term Transactions including SwapsTIC Net Long-Term Transactions number is the sum of gross purchases by foreigners from US residents minus gross sales by foreigners to US residents. The components used to calculate long term flows are US Treasury bonds and notes, US government agency bonds, US corporate bonds, US corporate stocks, foreign bonds and foreign stocks. (TIC signifies: Treasury International Capital Flows). A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. | 152.30B | — | 216.10B |
| 17:30 | US | Fed's Balance SheetThe Fed balance sheet is a statement listing the assets and liabilities of the Federal Reserve System. Details of the Fed's balance sheet are disclosed by the Fed in a weekly report called "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances." | 6,889B | — | 6,897B |
| 17:30 | US | Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve BanksReserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks is the amount of money that depository institutions maintain in their accounts at their regional Federal Reserve Banks. | 3.237T | — | 3.274T |
| Friday, Dec 20 | |||||
| 08:30 | US | ★FOMC Member Daly SpeaksFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President and Chief Executive Officer Mary Daly. Her public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. | — | — | — |
| 09:30 | US | ★Core PCE Price IndexThe Core PCE price Index is the less volatile measure of the PCE price index which excludes the more volatile and seasonal food and energy prices. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in inflation may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in inflation may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency. | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 09:30 | US | ★Core PCE Price IndexThe Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item. It measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 09:30 | US | ★PCE price indexThe PCE price index, also referred to as the PCE deflator, is a United States-wide indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in inflation may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in inflation may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency. | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 09:30 | US | ★PCE Price indexThe PCE price index, also referred to as the PCE deflator, is a United States-wide indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. The impact on the currency may go both ways: a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency; on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency. | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| 09:30 | US | Personal IncomePersonal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 09:30 | US | Personal SpendingPersonal Spending measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all spending by consumers. Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. However, this report tends to have a mild impact, as government data on retail sales is released about two weeks earlier. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 09:30 | US | Real Personal ConsumptionPersonal consumption adjusted for inflation, Personal consumption is divided into two key categories: goods and services. The category of "goods" is further broken down into "durable" goods, which are big-ticket items (refrigerators, television sets, cars, mobile phones, etc.) that will last more than three years, and "non-durable" goods that are more transitory (e.g., cosmetics, fuel, clothing, etc.). A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. | 0.3% | — | 0.1% |
| 11:00 | US | Michigan 1-Year Inflation ExpectationsUniversity of Michigan (UoM) Inflation Expectations measures the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart,Preliminary and Revised. The preliminary release is the earliest so tends to have more impact. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 11:00 | US | Michigan 5-Year Inflation ExpectationsThe University of Michigan Inflation Expectations survey of consumers presents the median expected price changes for the next 5 years. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| 11:00 | US | Michigan Consumer ExpectationsThe Michigan sentiment index includes two major components, a "current conditions" component and an "expectations" component. The current conditions component index is based on the answers to two standard questions and the expectations component index is based on three standard questions. This number is the expectations part of the overall index. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. This is the final number. | 73.3 | 71.6 | 76.9 |
| 11:00 | US | ★Michigan Consumer SentimentThe University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. | 74.0 | 74.0 | 71.8 |
| 11:00 | US | Michigan Current ConditionsThe Michigan sentiment index includes two major components, a "current conditions" component and an "expectations" component. The current conditions component index is based on the answers to two standard questions and the expectations component index is based on three standard questions. All five questions have equal weight in determining the overall index. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. This is the final number. This is the preliminary number. | 75.1 | 77.7 | 63.9 |
| 12:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNowGDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model. | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 14:00 | US | U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig CountThe Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products. | 483 | — | 482 |
| 14:00 | US | U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | 589 | — | 589 |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC Aluminium speculative net positionsThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for ""non-commercial"" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets. All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets. The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position. Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday. | 2.5K | — | 2.7K |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC Copper speculative net positionsThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets. All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets. The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position. Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday. | 5.9K | — | 11.0K |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC Corn speculative net positions | 221.8K | — | 224.4K |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions | 230.0K | — | 190.1K |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC Gold speculative net positionsThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets. All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets. The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position. Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday. | 262.0K | — | 275.6K |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions | 36.1K | — | 35.6K |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positionsThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for ""non-commercial"" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets. All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets. The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position. Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday. | -128.2K | — | -140.6K |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positionsThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets. All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets. The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position. Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday. | -39.9K | — | -83.3K |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC Silver speculative net positionsThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for "non-commercial" (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets. All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets. The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analyzing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position. Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm Eastern Time, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday. | 40.3K | — | 41.2K |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions | -109.3K | — | -86.2K |
| 16:30 | US | CFTC Wheat speculative net positions | -79.3K | — | -59.3K |
★ marks releases that usually move markets (inflation, jobs, growth, central-bank decisions). Click an event for what it measures. Actual values fill in as they're published.
| Release | Days | S&P 500 move | vs a typical day | Up / down | Average | Biggest up | Biggest down | Nasdaq move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 59 | ±0.97% | 1.3× | 33 / 26 | +0.12% | +5.5% Nov 22 | −4.3% Sep 22 | ±1.34% |
| Jobs report | 57 | ±0.98% | 1.3× | 28 / 29 | −0.16% | +2.3% Jan 23 | −6.0% Apr 25 | ±1.33% |
| Fed decision | 40 | ±1.00% | 1.3× | 17 / 23 | +0.07% | +3.0% May 22 | −2.9% Dec 24 | ±1.34% |
| PPI | 59 | ±0.70% | 0.9× | 35 / 24 | +0.19% | +2.1% Mar 22 | −1.6% Jan 23 | ±0.94% |
| Retail sales | 60 | ±0.80% | 1.0× | 27 / 33 | −0.07% | +2.2% Mar 22 | −2.5% Dec 22 | ±1.01% |
| GDP | 59 | ±0.74% | 1.0× | 34 / 25 | +0.29% | +3.1% Nov 22 | −2.1% Sep 22 | ±1.06% |
| PCE inflation | 58 | ±0.92% | 1.2× | 34 / 24 | +0.22% | +2.5% May 22 | −3.6% Apr 22 | ±1.14% |
| A typical day | — | ±0.76% | 1.0× | ±1.05% | ||||
Each release day's close against the session before. Most of these come at 8:30 ET, before the open; Fed decisions at 2:00 ET. Other news moves markets on the same days, so this is how those days have gone, not what the release alone did.