VULC3.SA
VULCABRAS ON NMClosedVULC3.SA discounted cash flow valuation
VULC3.SA Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 4.9% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 11.6% in this model.
Model: 11.6% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.48% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | BRL 2.75B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (67% of EV) | BRL 5.51B |
| Enterprise value | BRL 8.26B |
| + Cash & investments | BRL 355.58M |
| − Total debt | −BRL 969.76M |
| Equity value | BRL 7.65B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 314.11M |
| Value per share | BRL 24.36 |
| Market cap | BRL 5.01B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 9.49% |
| Tax rate | 34.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 16.2% |
| WACC | 7.48% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.48% | 33.22 | 37.49 | 43.19 | 51.18 | 63.21 |
| 6.48% | 25.76 | 28.26 | 31.39 | 35.42 | 40.81 |
| 7.48% | 20.81 | 22.42 | 24.36 | 26.72 | 29.68 |
| 8.48% | 17.29 | 18.40 | 19.69 | 21.21 | 23.04 |
| 9.48% | 14.67 | 15.46 | 16.37 | 17.41 | 18.63 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | BRL 236.72M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 11.6% | BRL 264.17M | 0.930 | BRL 245.79M |
| Year 2 | 11.6% | BRL 294.82M | 0.866 | BRL 255.21M |
| Year 3 | 11.6% | BRL 329.02M | 0.805 | BRL 264.99M |
| Year 4 | 11.6% | BRL 367.18M | 0.749 | BRL 275.15M |
| Year 5 | 11.6% | BRL 409.78M | 0.697 | BRL 285.70M |
| Year 6 | 9.8% | BRL 449.85M | 0.649 | BRL 291.81M |
| Year 7 | 8.0% | BRL 485.66M | 0.604 | BRL 293.12M |
| Year 8 | 6.1% | BRL 515.48M | 0.562 | BRL 289.46M |
| Year 9 | 4.3% | BRL 537.75M | 0.522 | BRL 280.95M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | BRL 551.19M | 0.486 | BRL 267.93M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.