VIRT
Virtu Financial, Inc.After hours55.94−0.83 −1.46%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 55.94 +0.03%
Open
56.99
Prev close
56.77
Day range
55.3056.99
52-week range
31.5568.76
Volume
1.55M1.19×
Mkt cap
4.94B
P/E ttm
9.29
Fwd P/E
7.84
EPS ttm
6.02
Div yield
1.69%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−18.64%
VIRT market-implied price distribution
VIRT Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 39.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 55.94
Expected price
56.41
forward 56.50
68% range
49–63
−11.7% / +12.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 35.52 | −36.5% |
| 16% | 49.37 | −11.7% |
| 25% | 51.84 | −7.3% |
| 50% (median) | 56.05 | +0.2% |
| 75% | 60.29 | +7.8% |
| 84% | 62.71 | +12.1% |
| 95% | 70.97 | +26.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (58.74) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (61.53) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (53.14) | 32% |
| Down 10% or more (50.35) | 19% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 19%, 0.9× the 20% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.