VALE
VALE S.A.After hours13.37−0.15 −1.11%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 13.40 +0.22%
Open
13.38
Prev close
13.52
Day range
13.2613.45
52-week range
10.7717.94
Volume
25.00M0.89×
Mkt cap
56.90B
P/E ttm
26.74
Fwd P/E
7.14
EPS ttm
0.5000
Div yield
6.24%
Earnings
Jul 30, 2026
From 52w high
−25.47%
VALE market-implied price distribution
VALE Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 36.0%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 13.37
Expected price
13.43
forward 13.41
68% range
12–15
−10.3% / +11.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 11.12 | −16.9% |
| 16% | 12.00 | −10.3% |
| 25% | 12.41 | −7.2% |
| 50% (median) | 13.30 | −0.5% |
| 75% | 14.29 | +6.9% |
| 84% | 14.83 | +11.0% |
| 95% | 16.24 | +21.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (14.04) | 30% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (14.71) | 18% |
| Down 5% or more (12.70) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (12.03) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 1.0× the 16% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.