UUP
Invesco DB USD Index Bullish FuOpen29.03−0.10 −0.34%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET
Open
29.02
Prev close
29.13
Day range
29.0129.06
52-week range
26.4029.14
Volume
2.26M1.32×
Div yield
3.22%
From 52w high
−0.38%
UUP market-implied price distribution
UUP Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 9.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 29.03
Expected price
29.31
forward 29.15
68% range
28–30
−2.4% / +3.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 27.69 | −4.6% |
| 16% | 28.33 | −2.4% |
| 25% | 28.57 | −1.6% |
| 50% (median) | 29.06 | +0.1% |
| 75% | 29.64 | +2.1% |
| 84% | 30.02 | +3.4% |
| 95% | 32.36 | +11.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (30.48) | 10% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (31.93) | 5.4% |
| Down 5% or more (27.58) | 3.8% |
| Down 10% or more (26.13) | 0.0% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 0.0%, 1.1× the 0.0% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.