TX
Ternium S.A. Ternium S.A.Open58.41+0.47 +0.81%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:52 ET · 20m delay
Open
57.91
Prev close
57.94
Day range
56.9558.68
52-week range
33.0159.32
Volume
156.73K0.28×
Mkt cap
—
P/E ttm
16.23
Fwd P/E
7.64
EPS ttm
3.60
Div yield
3.80%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−1.53%
TX market-implied price distribution
TX Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 39.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 58.41
Expected price
59.03
forward 58.18
68% range
52–65
−10.3% / +11.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 46.58 | −20.3% |
| 16% | 52.41 | −10.3% |
| 25% | 54.71 | −6.3% |
| 50% (median) | 58.96 | +0.9% |
| 75% | 63.08 | +8.0% |
| 84% | 65.28 | +11.8% |
| 95% | 72.07 | +23.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (61.33) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (64.25) | 20% |
| Down 5% or more (55.49) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (52.57) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 0.7× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.