TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.Pre-market11.94−0.14 −1.16%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 11.97 +0.25%
Open
12.25
Prev close
12.08
Day range
11.8912.33
52-week range
11.6255.11
Volume
13.89M0.59×
Mkt cap
5.65B
P/E ttm
14.39
Fwd P/E
11.92
EPS ttm
0.8300
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−78.33%
TTD market-implied price distribution
TTD Price at Expiry
23 OTM quotes · ATM IV 81.3%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 11.94
Expected price
12.10
forward 12.10
68% range
9–15
−22.1% / +24.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 7.67 | −35.8% |
| 16% | 9.31 | −22.1% |
| 25% | 10.09 | −15.5% |
| 50% (median) | 11.80 | −1.2% |
| 75% | 13.74 | +15.1% |
| 84% | 14.81 | +24.1% |
| 95% | 17.56 | +47.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (12.54) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (13.13) | 32% |
| Down 5% or more (11.34) | 43% |
| Down 10% or more (10.75) | 34% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 34%, 1.0× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.