TPC
Tutor Perini CorporationOpen82.39−1.10 −1.32%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
82.38
Prev close
83.49
Day range
81.3882.80
52-week range
57.90102.30
Volume
27.26K0.04×
Mkt cap
4.33B
P/E ttm
35.51
Fwd P/E
13.58
EPS ttm
2.32
Div yield
0.43%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−19.47%
TPC market-implied price distribution
TPC Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 59.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 82.39
Expected price
81.60
forward 82.66
68% range
66–97
−20.3% / +17.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 45.25 | −45.1% |
| 16% | 65.67 | −20.3% |
| 25% | 72.03 | −12.6% |
| 50% (median) | 81.94 | −0.5% |
| 75% | 91.52 | +11.1% |
| 84% | 97.04 | +17.8% |
| 95% | 115.01 | +39.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (86.50) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (90.62) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (78.27) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (74.15) | 29% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 0.9× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.