TLH
iShares 10-20 Year Treasury BonAfter hours92.56+0.31 +0.34%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ETAfter hours 92.56 0.00%
Open
92.75
Prev close
92.25
Day range
92.3892.76
52-week range
90.72105.47
Volume
2.06M1.08×
Div yield
4.83%
From 52w high
−12.24%
TLH market-implied price distribution
TLH Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 14.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
63%
spot 92.56
Expected price
93.30
forward 92.95
68% range
89–97
−4.2% / +4.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 84.76 | −8.4% |
| 16% | 88.67 | −4.2% |
| 25% | 91.11 | −1.6% |
| 50% (median) | 93.48 | +1.0% |
| 75% | 95.27 | +2.9% |
| 84% | 96.51 | +4.3% |
| 95% | 102.62 | +10.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (97.19) | 13% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (101.82) | 6.2% |
| Down 5% or more (87.93) | 13% |
| Down 10% or more (83.30) | 2.9% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 2.9%, 2.8× the 1.0% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.