Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 374.35 | −25.5% |
| 16% | 425.29 | −15.4% |
| 25% | 449.81 | −10.5% |
| 50% (median) | 499.47 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 548.10 | +9.1% |
| 84% | 571.18 | +13.7% |
| 95% | 616.28 | +22.6% |
| Up 5% or more (527.64) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (552.76) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (477.38) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (452.26) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 1.2× the 21% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.