SHOP
Shopify Inc.Pre-market179.22+8.37 +4.90%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 178.00 −0.68%
Open
173.90
Prev close
170.85
Day range
172.94180.86
52-week range
94.00182.19
Volume
12.44M1.30×
Mkt cap
232.57B
P/E ttm
121.09
Fwd P/E
73.02
EPS ttm
1.48
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−1.63%
SHOP market-implied price distribution
SHOP Price at Expiry
37 OTM quotes · ATM IV 69.6%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
36%
spot 179.22
Expected price
175.61
forward 173.62
68% range
141–212
−21.5% / +18.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 126.22 | −29.6% |
| 16% | 140.72 | −21.5% |
| 25% | 148.37 | −17.2% |
| 50% (median) | 167.11 | −6.8% |
| 75% | 193.28 | +7.8% |
| 84% | 211.82 | +18.2% |
| 95% | 254.92 | +42.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (188.18) | 29% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (197.14) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (170.26) | 54% |
| Down 10% or more (161.30) | 42% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 42%, 1.1× the 40% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.