SERV
Serve Robotics Inc.After hours3.44−0.35 −9.11%USD
NasdaqCM · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 3.45 +0.29%
Open
3.72
Prev close
3.79
Day range
3.423.77
52-week range
3.4218.64
Volume
3.87M1.05×
Mkt cap
298.27M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-1.96
EPS ttm
-2.47
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−81.55%
SERV market-implied price distribution
SERV Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 87.1%
Days to expiry
30
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 3.44
Expected price
3.47
forward 3.43
68% range
3–4
−23.0% / +22.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 2.27 | −33.9% |
| 16% | 2.65 | −23.0% |
| 25% | 2.86 | −16.9% |
| 50% (median) | 3.30 | −4.0% |
| 75% | 3.86 | +12.1% |
| 84% | 4.20 | +22.0% |
| 95% | 5.29 | +53.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (3.61) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (3.78) | 28% |
| Down 5% or more (3.27) | 48% |
| Down 10% or more (3.10) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 1.0× the 39% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.