RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.Pre-market280.67−1.59 −0.56%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:02 ET · 20m delayPre-market 283.00 +0.83%
Open
278.03
Prev close
282.26
Day range
276.25284.87
52-week range
222.22356.39
Volume
1.20M0.50×
Mkt cap
75.07B
P/E ttm
17.23
Fwd P/E
13.77
EPS ttm
16.29
Div yield
2.14%
Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
From 52w high
−21.25%
RCL market-implied price distribution
RCL Price at Expiry
25 OTM quotes · ATM IV 52.9%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 280.67
Expected price
282.41
forward 284.19
68% range
239–325
−14.8% / +15.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 198.85 | −29.2% |
| 16% | 239.10 | −14.8% |
| 25% | 254.95 | −9.2% |
| 50% (median) | 284.39 | +1.3% |
| 75% | 311.93 | +11.1% |
| 84% | 325.09 | +15.8% |
| 95% | 353.39 | +25.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (294.70) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (308.74) | 28% |
| Down 5% or more (266.64) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (252.60) | 23% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 23%, 0.9× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.