PINE
Alpine Income Property Trust, IClosed17.64−0.72 −3.92%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 17.64 0.00%
Open
18.20
Prev close
18.36
Day range
17.5118.31
52-week range
13.5721.99
Volume
146.58K0.98×
Mkt cap
337.97M
P/E ttm
84.00
Fwd P/E
25.81
EPS ttm
0.2100
Div yield
6.56%
Earnings
Oct 22, 2026
From 52w high
−19.78%
PINE market-implied price distribution
PINE Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 31.0%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
69%
spot 17.64
Expected price
18.46
forward 17.97
68% range
17–20
−4.0% / +10.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 15.65 | −11.3% |
| 16% | 16.93 | −4.0% |
| 25% | 17.40 | −1.4% |
| 50% (median) | 18.23 | +3.4% |
| 75% | 19.05 | +8.0% |
| 84% | 19.53 | +10.7% |
| 95% | 22.15 | +25.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (18.52) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (19.40) | 18% |
| Down 5% or more (16.76) | 14% |
| Down 10% or more (15.88) | 6.1% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 6.1%, 0.5× the 11% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.