PBA
Pembina Pipeline Corp.Open48.42+0.62 +1.29%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:19 ET · 20m delay
Open
48.00
Prev close
47.80
Day range
48.0448.44
52-week range
36.2051.58
Volume
119.23K0.12×
Mkt cap
28.16B
P/E ttm
23.85
Fwd P/E
21.58
EPS ttm
2.03
Div yield
4.34%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−6.14%
PBA market-implied price distribution
PBA Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 23.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 48.42
Expected price
47.87
forward 48.16
68% range
45–51
−7.3% / +5.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 39.79 | −17.8% |
| 16% | 44.89 | −7.3% |
| 25% | 46.09 | −4.8% |
| 50% (median) | 48.15 | −0.5% |
| 75% | 50.14 | +3.6% |
| 84% | 51.23 | +5.8% |
| 95% | 54.65 | +12.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (50.84) | 19% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (53.26) | 7.5% |
| Down 5% or more (45.99) | 24% |
| Down 10% or more (43.57) | 10% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 10%, 1.1× the 9.7% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.