PAM
Pampa Energia S.A.Open81.37−0.16 −0.20%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 15:48 ET · 20m delay
Open
81.27
Prev close
81.53
Day range
80.6782.12
52-week range
58.5094.50
Volume
107.61K0.62×
Mkt cap
4.36B
P/E ttm
7.40
Fwd P/E
6.93
EPS ttm
11.00
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 2, 2026
From 52w high
−13.89%
PAM market-implied price distribution
PAM Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 30.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 81.37
Expected price
81.37
forward 81.80
68% range
73–90
−9.8% / +10.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 61.45 | −24.5% |
| 16% | 73.40 | −9.8% |
| 25% | 76.66 | −5.8% |
| 50% (median) | 81.51 | +0.2% |
| 75% | 86.35 | +6.1% |
| 84% | 89.51 | +10.0% |
| 95% | 99.71 | +22.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (85.44) | 29% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (89.51) | 16% |
| Down 5% or more (77.30) | 28% |
| Down 10% or more (73.23) | 16% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 16%, 1.1× the 14% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.