PALL
abrdn Physical Palladium SharesOpen20.40−0.21 −1.02%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 13:43 ET
Open
20.50
Prev close
20.61
Day range
20.3620.60
52-week range
20.2039.48
Volume
324.67K0.38×
Fwd P/E
0.02
Div yield
0.00%
From 52w high
−48.33%
PALL market-implied price distribution
PALL Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 35.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 20.40
Expected price
20.67
forward 20.58
68% range
18–23
−12.5% / +10.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 15.40 | −24.5% |
| 16% | 17.86 | −12.5% |
| 25% | 19.02 | −6.7% |
| 50% (median) | 20.49 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 21.81 | +6.9% |
| 84% | 22.59 | +10.7% |
| 95% | 27.00 | +32.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (21.42) | 31% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (22.44) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (19.38) | 30% |
| Down 10% or more (18.36) | 19% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 19%, 1.1× the 18% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.