MUB
iShares National Muni Bond ETFOpen101.72+0.56 +0.55%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET
Open
101.35
Prev close
101.16
Day range
101.32101.73
52-week range
100.07109.00
Volume
20.59M2.16×
Div yield
3.40%
From 52w high
−6.68%
MUB market-implied price distribution
MUB Price at Expiry
18 OTM quotes · ATM IV 8.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
35%
spot 101.72
Expected price
101.01
forward 101.00
68% range
99–103
−2.8% / +1.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 96.34 | −5.3% |
| 16% | 98.88 | −2.8% |
| 25% | 99.62 | −2.1% |
| 50% (median) | 100.96 | −0.7% |
| 75% | 102.31 | +0.6% |
| 84% | 103.07 | +1.3% |
| 95% | 105.56 | +3.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (106.81) | 3.7% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (111.89) | 2.4% |
| Down 5% or more (96.63) | 5.5% |
| Down 10% or more (91.55) | 2.8% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 2.8%, 86.3× the 0.0% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.