META
Meta Platforms, Inc.Pre-market742.96+24.29 +3.38%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 736.83 −0.83%
Open
727.97
Prev close
718.67
Day range
727.78752.24
52-week range
520.26779.82
Volume
24.75M1.32×
Mkt cap
1.89T
P/E ttm
28.94
Fwd P/E
21.58
EPS ttm
25.67
Div yield
0.28%
Earnings
Oct 21, 2026
From 52w high
−4.73%
META market-implied price distribution
META Price at Expiry
123 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.2%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 742.96
Expected price
745.63
forward 745.35
68% range
651–838
−12.4% / +12.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 592.67 | −20.2% |
| 16% | 650.79 | −12.4% |
| 25% | 678.68 | −8.7% |
| 50% (median) | 738.58 | −0.6% |
| 75% | 803.83 | +8.2% |
| 84% | 838.27 | +12.8% |
| 95% | 920.33 | +23.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (780.11) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (817.26) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (705.81) | 36% |
| Down 10% or more (668.66) | 21% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 21%, 1.0× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.