LRN
Stride, Inc.Pre-market84.43−1.16 −1.36%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
85.15
Prev close
85.59
Day range
83.6485.81
52-week range
60.61155.06
Volume
690.77K0.81×
Mkt cap
3.51B
P/E ttm
11.82
Fwd P/E
9.10
EPS ttm
7.14
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 20, 2026
From 52w high
−45.55%
LRN market-implied price distribution
LRN Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 62.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
36%
spot 84.43
Expected price
82.33
forward 81.58
68% range
65–98
−22.6% / +16.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 58.51 | −30.7% |
| 16% | 65.39 | −22.6% |
| 25% | 69.14 | −18.1% |
| 50% (median) | 78.37 | −7.2% |
| 75% | 90.61 | +7.3% |
| 84% | 98.36 | +16.5% |
| 95% | 123.10 | +45.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (88.65) | 28% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (92.87) | 22% |
| Down 5% or more (80.21) | 55% |
| Down 10% or more (75.99) | 44% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 44%, 1.1× the 40% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.