Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
81.92
−19.8%
16%
91.43
−10.5%
25%
95.24
−6.7%
50% (median)
102.48
+0.4%
75%
109.81
+7.6%
84%
113.81
+11.5%
95%
125.52
+22.9%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (107.21)
33%
Up 10% or more (112.31)
19%
Down 5% or more (96.99)
30%
Down 10% or more (91.89)
17%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 0.7× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.