IXUS
iShares Core MSCI Total InternaClosed94.66+0.09 +0.10%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
94.49
Prev close
94.57
Day range
94.3194.73
52-week range
81.0298.83
Volume
1.31M0.71×
P/E ttm
16.09
EPS ttm
5.88
Div yield
2.95%
From 52w high
−4.22%
IXUS market-implied price distribution
IXUS Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 18.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
72%
spot 94.66
Expected price
92.15
forward 97.23
68% range
73–101
−23.3% / +6.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 57.79 | −39.0% |
| 16% | 72.59 | −23.3% |
| 25% | 92.83 | −1.9% |
| 50% (median) | 98.55 | +4.1% |
| 75% | 100.58 | +6.3% |
| 84% | 101.15 | +6.9% |
| 95% | 105.36 | +11.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (99.39) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (104.13) | 7.3% |
| Down 5% or more (89.93) | 22% |
| Down 10% or more (85.19) | 21% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 21%, 15.4× the 1.4% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.