IWB
iShares Russell 1000 ETFAfter hours424.78−0.15 −0.04%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET
Open
424.55
Prev close
424.93
Day range
423.63425.29
52-week range
345.21427.04
Volume
190.73K0.39×
P/E ttm
24.32
EPS ttm
17.47
Div yield
0.92%
From 52w high
−0.53%
IWB market-implied price distribution
IWB Price at Expiry
25 OTM quotes · ATM IV 22.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 424.78
Expected price
419.92
forward 425.46
68% range
403–447
−5.0% / +5.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 277.48 | −34.7% |
| 16% | 403.35 | −5.0% |
| 25% | 411.95 | −3.0% |
| 50% (median) | 425.54 | +0.2% |
| 75% | 438.97 | +3.3% |
| 84% | 447.26 | +5.3% |
| 95% | 482.21 | +13.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (446.02) | 17% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (467.26) | 7.9% |
| Down 5% or more (403.54) | 16% |
| Down 10% or more (382.30) | 8.0% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 8.0%, 1.1× the 7.3% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.