GNE.NZ
Genesis Energy Limited OrdinaryClosedGNE.NZ discounted cash flow valuation
GNE.NZ Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -2.3% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 2.7% in this model.
Model: 2.7% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 6.67% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | NZD 1.88B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (67% of EV) | NZD 3.85B |
| Enterprise value | NZD 5.72B |
| + Cash & investments | NZD 145.10M |
| − Total debt | −NZD 1.14B |
| Equity value | NZD 4.73B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 1.31B |
| Value per share | NZD 3.61 |
| Market cap | NZD 3.22B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.36% |
| Tax rate | 31.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 26.1% |
| WACC | 6.67% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.67% | 5.31 | 6.26 | 7.65 | 9.88 | 14.00 |
| 5.67% | 3.84 | 4.34 | 5.00 | 5.90 | 7.21 |
| 6.67% | 2.95 | 3.25 | 3.61 | 4.09 | 4.70 |
| 7.67% | 2.34 | 2.54 | 2.77 | 3.05 | 3.40 |
| 8.67% | 1.90 | 2.04 | 2.20 | 2.38 | 2.60 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | NZD 230.10M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 2.7% | NZD 236.31M | 0.937 | NZD 221.54M |
| Year 2 | 2.7% | NZD 242.69M | 0.879 | NZD 213.29M |
| Year 3 | 2.7% | NZD 249.25M | 0.824 | NZD 205.35M |
| Year 4 | 2.7% | NZD 255.98M | 0.772 | NZD 197.71M |
| Year 5 | 2.7% | NZD 262.89M | 0.724 | NZD 190.35M |
| Year 6 | 2.7% | NZD 269.88M | 0.679 | NZD 183.20M |
| Year 7 | 2.6% | NZD 276.95M | 0.636 | NZD 176.24M |
| Year 8 | 2.6% | NZD 284.10M | 0.597 | NZD 169.48M |
| Year 9 | 2.5% | NZD 291.31M | 0.559 | NZD 162.92M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | NZD 298.59M | 0.524 | NZD 156.55M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.