EWZ
iShares MSCI Brazil ETFAfter hours42.87−0.67 −1.54%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ETAfter hours 42.85 −0.05%
Open
42.78
Prev close
43.54
Day range
42.7743.19
52-week range
28.8343.90
Volume
52.43M1.89×
P/E ttm
12.39
EPS ttm
3.46
Div yield
3.94%
From 52w high
−2.35%
EWZ market-implied price distribution
EWZ Price at Expiry
34 OTM quotes · ATM IV 42.0%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
53%
spot 42.87
Expected price
42.82
forward 42.97
68% range
38–48
−11.2% / +11.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 31.47 | −26.6% |
| 16% | 38.07 | −11.2% |
| 25% | 39.96 | −6.8% |
| 50% (median) | 43.21 | +0.8% |
| 75% | 46.25 | +7.9% |
| 84% | 47.83 | +11.6% |
| 95% | 52.29 | +22.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (45.01) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (47.16) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (40.73) | 30% |
| Down 10% or more (38.58) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 0.9× the 21% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.