EWJ
iShares MSCI Japan Index FundClosed97.320.00 0.00%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ETAfter hours 97.22 −0.10%
Open
97.26
Prev close
97.32
Day range
97.0097.52
52-week range
79.4899.98
Volume
1.90M0.49×
P/E ttm
15.25
EPS ttm
6.38
Div yield
3.66%
From 52w high
−2.66%
EWJ market-implied price distribution
EWJ Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 19.8%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 97.32
Expected price
97.49
forward 97.65
68% range
91–104
−6.2% / +7.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 85.32 | −12.3% |
| 16% | 91.31 | −6.2% |
| 25% | 93.71 | −3.7% |
| 50% (median) | 97.34 | +0.0% |
| 75% | 101.15 | +3.9% |
| 84% | 104.19 | +7.1% |
| 95% | 109.86 | +12.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (102.19) | 21% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (107.05) | 9.3% |
| Down 5% or more (92.45) | 20% |
| Down 10% or more (87.59) | 8.9% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 8.9%, 2.9× the 3.1% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.