EWC
iShares MSCI Canada Index FundClosed59.91+0.46 +0.77%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ETAfter hours 59.97 +0.10%
Open
59.50
Prev close
59.45
Day range
59.4160.02
52-week range
49.3162.71
Volume
3.41M1.95×
P/E ttm
19.45
EPS ttm
3.08
Div yield
1.29%
From 52w high
−4.46%
EWC market-implied price distribution
EWC Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 13.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 59.91
Expected price
59.58
forward 59.95
68% range
57–62
−5.1% / +4.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 52.03 | −13.2% |
| 16% | 56.86 | −5.1% |
| 25% | 58.34 | −2.6% |
| 50% (median) | 60.16 | +0.4% |
| 75% | 61.59 | +2.8% |
| 84% | 62.32 | +4.0% |
| 95% | 64.72 | +8.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (62.91) | 11% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (65.90) | 2.9% |
| Down 5% or more (56.91) | 16% |
| Down 10% or more (53.92) | 11% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 11%, 14.0× the 0.8% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.