EUFN
iShares MSCI Europe Financials Closed38.74+0.36 +0.94%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 38.67 −0.18%
Open
38.94
Prev close
38.38
Day range
38.6139.06
52-week range
32.9143.07
Volume
1.22M0.69×
P/E ttm
12.06
EPS ttm
3.21
Div yield
4.16%
From 52w high
−10.05%
EUFN market-implied price distribution
EUFN Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 30.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 38.74
Expected price
38.61
forward 38.50
68% range
35–42
−10.6% / +8.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 31.70 | −18.2% |
| 16% | 34.62 | −10.6% |
| 25% | 36.33 | −6.2% |
| 50% (median) | 38.37 | −0.9% |
| 75% | 40.43 | +4.4% |
| 84% | 42.09 | +8.7% |
| 95% | 46.74 | +20.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (40.68) | 23% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (42.61) | 14% |
| Down 5% or more (36.80) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (34.87) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 1.0× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.