ESAB
ESAB CorporationPre-market66.39−0.46 −0.69%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
66.08
Prev close
66.85
Day range
65.2267.08
52-week range
62.74137.42
Volume
760.66K0.89×
Mkt cap
4.13B
P/E ttm
20.55
Fwd P/E
10.30
EPS ttm
3.23
Div yield
0.72%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−51.69%
ESAB market-implied price distribution
ESAB Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 47.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 66.39
Expected price
66.51
forward 66.67
68% range
55–78
−17.0% / +17.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 44.91 | −32.4% |
| 16% | 55.08 | −17.0% |
| 25% | 59.10 | −11.0% |
| 50% (median) | 65.41 | −1.5% |
| 75% | 72.50 | +9.2% |
| 84% | 77.94 | +17.4% |
| 95% | 91.67 | +38.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (69.71) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (73.03) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (63.07) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (59.75) | 27% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 1.0× the 26% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.