ELS
Equity Lifestyle Properties, InAfter hours58.94−0.25 −0.42%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 58.94 −0.03%
Open
59.33
Prev close
59.19
Day range
58.6659.55
52-week range
57.4669.00
Volume
1.99M1.23×
Mkt cap
11.82B
P/E ttm
28.47
Fwd P/E
27.00
EPS ttm
2.07
Div yield
3.67%
Earnings
Oct 20, 2026
From 52w high
−14.58%
ELS market-implied price distribution
ELS Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 21.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
56%
spot 58.94
Expected price
58.80
forward 59.50
68% range
55–63
−7.0% / +6.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 41.02 | −30.4% |
| 16% | 54.83 | −7.0% |
| 25% | 56.98 | −3.3% |
| 50% (median) | 59.41 | +0.8% |
| 75% | 61.58 | +4.5% |
| 84% | 62.97 | +6.8% |
| 95% | 76.15 | +29.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (61.89) | 23% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (64.83) | 10% |
| Down 5% or more (55.99) | 20% |
| Down 10% or more (53.05) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 2.7× the 4.8% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.