CSL
Carlisle Companies IncorporatedOpen322.72+3.15 +0.99%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 11:48 ET · 20m delay
Open
317.17
Prev close
319.57
Day range
317.80325.74
52-week range
293.43432.91
Volume
94.79K0.18×
Mkt cap
12.82B
P/E ttm
18.35
Fwd P/E
13.47
EPS ttm
17.59
Div yield
1.56%
Earnings
Jul 29, 2026
From 52w high
−25.45%
CSL market-implied price distribution
CSL Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 41.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 322.72
Expected price
322.90
forward 324.09
68% range
279–365
−13.4% / +13.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 240.63 | −25.4% |
| 16% | 279.46 | −13.4% |
| 25% | 295.66 | −8.4% |
| 50% (median) | 321.89 | −0.3% |
| 75% | 348.51 | +8.0% |
| 84% | 364.89 | +13.1% |
| 95% | 408.47 | +26.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (338.86) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (354.99) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (306.58) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (290.45) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 0.9× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.