CPH.TO
CIPHER PHARMACEUTICALS INCClosedCPH.TO discounted cash flow valuation
CPH.TO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -10.9% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 14.8% in this model.
Model: 14.8% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.69% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CAD 489.91M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (67% of EV) | CAD 991.97M |
| Enterprise value | CAD 1.48B |
| + Cash & investments | CAD 12.96M |
| − Total debt | −CAD 521.98K |
| Equity value | CAD 1.49B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 25.42M |
| Value per share | CAD 58.80 |
| Market cap | CAD 339.29M |
USD statements converted at 1.422 CAD.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.69% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 15.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 0.2% |
| WACC | 7.69% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.69% | 77.95 | 86.87 | 98.58 | 114.64 | 138.04 |
| 6.69% | 61.93 | 67.28 | 73.91 | 82.33 | 93.39 |
| 7.69% | 51.13 | 54.63 | 58.80 | 63.85 | 70.12 |
| 8.69% | 43.37 | 45.80 | 48.61 | 51.92 | 55.86 |
| 9.69% | 37.55 | 39.30 | 41.29 | 43.59 | 46.25 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CAD 37.04M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 14.8% | CAD 42.52M | 0.929 | CAD 39.49M |
| Year 2 | 14.8% | CAD 48.82M | 0.862 | CAD 42.10M |
| Year 3 | 14.8% | CAD 56.04M | 0.801 | CAD 44.87M |
| Year 4 | 14.8% | CAD 64.34M | 0.744 | CAD 47.84M |
| Year 5 | 14.8% | CAD 73.86M | 0.690 | CAD 51.00M |
| Year 6 | 12.3% | CAD 82.97M | 0.641 | CAD 53.20M |
| Year 7 | 9.9% | CAD 91.17M | 0.595 | CAD 54.28M |
| Year 8 | 7.4% | CAD 97.94M | 0.553 | CAD 54.14M |
| Year 9 | 5.0% | CAD 102.79M | 0.513 | CAD 52.77M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CAD 105.36M | 0.477 | CAD 50.23M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.