BOX
Box, Inc.After hours37.54+0.83 +2.26%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 37.54 0.00%
Open
36.75
Prev close
36.71
Day range
36.8137.59
52-week range
21.3437.59
Volume
1.85M0.65×
Mkt cap
5.15B
P/E ttm
54.41
Fwd P/E
21.62
EPS ttm
0.6900
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 25, 2026
From 52w high
−0.12%
BOX market-implied price distribution
BOX Price at Expiry
19 OTM quotes · ATM IV 35.3%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 37.54
Expected price
37.28
forward 37.63
68% range
34–42
−10.6% / +10.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 26.30 | −29.9% |
| 16% | 33.56 | −10.6% |
| 25% | 35.10 | −6.5% |
| 50% (median) | 37.69 | +0.4% |
| 75% | 40.17 | +7.0% |
| 84% | 41.53 | +10.6% |
| 95% | 45.10 | +20.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (39.42) | 32% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (41.29) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (35.66) | 29% |
| Down 10% or more (33.79) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 0.9× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.