BLV
Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETFAfter hours63.08+0.12 +0.19%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ETAfter hours 63.33 +0.40%
Open
63.27
Prev close
62.96
Day range
63.0063.27
52-week range
61.7872.63
Volume
959.75K1.27×
Div yield
5.23%
From 52w high
−13.15%
BLV market-implied price distribution
BLV Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 11.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
57%
spot 63.08
Expected price
63.19
forward 63.35
68% range
61–65
−3.4% / +3.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 57.91 | −8.2% |
| 16% | 60.92 | −3.4% |
| 25% | 61.93 | −1.8% |
| 50% (median) | 63.47 | +0.6% |
| 75% | 64.78 | +2.7% |
| 84% | 65.43 | +3.7% |
| 95% | 67.16 | +6.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (66.23) | 9.0% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (69.39) | 1.1% |
| Down 5% or more (59.93) | 11% |
| Down 10% or more (56.77) | 2.3% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 2.3%, 12.7× the 0.2% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.