BALL
Ball CorporationOpen59.34+0.15 +0.25%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
59.88
Prev close
59.19
Day range
59.2060.26
52-week range
44.8368.29
Volume
195.82K0.10×
Mkt cap
15.71B
P/E ttm
16.91
Fwd P/E
13.12
EPS ttm
3.51
Div yield
1.35%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−13.11%
BALL market-implied price distribution
BALL Price at Expiry
19 OTM quotes · ATM IV 28.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
54%
spot 59.36
Expected price
59.55
forward 59.92
68% range
55–65
−7.7% / +8.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 46.54 | −21.6% |
| 16% | 54.77 | −7.7% |
| 25% | 56.65 | −4.6% |
| 50% (median) | 59.84 | +0.8% |
| 75% | 62.93 | +6.0% |
| 84% | 64.63 | +8.9% |
| 95% | 69.86 | +17.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (62.33) | 29% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (65.30) | 13% |
| Down 5% or more (56.39) | 23% |
| Down 10% or more (53.42) | 12% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 1.1× the 11% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.