ARWR
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.After hours58.13−2.60 −4.28%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 58.13 0.00%
Open
60.04
Prev close
60.73
Day range
58.0860.73
52-week range
34.6195.49
Volume
2.25M1.19×
Mkt cap
8.21B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-11.79
EPS ttm
-2.28
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−39.12%
ARWR market-implied price distribution
ARWR Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 53.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 58.13
Expected price
59.11
forward 58.78
68% range
48–68
−17.2% / +17.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 42.45 | −27.0% |
| 16% | 48.11 | −17.2% |
| 25% | 51.66 | −11.1% |
| 50% (median) | 57.89 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 64.40 | +10.8% |
| 84% | 68.05 | +17.1% |
| 95% | 78.98 | +35.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (61.04) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (63.94) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (55.22) | 38% |
| Down 10% or more (52.32) | 27% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 1.0× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.