APP
Applovin CorporationPre-market270.87−6.17 −2.23%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 269.05 −0.67%
Open
279.32
Prev close
277.04
Day range
270.14283.66
52-week range
266.84738.01
Volume
3.61M0.62×
Mkt cap
91.00B
P/E ttm
20.82
Fwd P/E
13.20
EPS ttm
13.01
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−63.30%
APP market-implied price distribution
APP Price at Expiry
49 OTM quotes · ATM IV 74.4%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 270.87
Expected price
274.26
forward 273.74
68% range
216–330
−20.1% / +21.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 183.85 | −32.1% |
| 16% | 216.31 | −20.1% |
| 25% | 232.07 | −14.3% |
| 50% (median) | 267.08 | −1.4% |
| 75% | 307.45 | +13.5% |
| 84% | 329.95 | +21.8% |
| 95% | 388.78 | +43.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (284.41) | 38% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (297.96) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (257.33) | 43% |
| Down 10% or more (243.78) | 33% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 33%, 1.0× the 34% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.