AMSC
American Superconductor CorporaOpen28.66−0.93 −3.16%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 11:21 ET · 15m delay
Open
29.18
Prev close
29.60
Day range
28.6129.72
52-week range
24.8770.49
Volume
140.89K0.19×
Mkt cap
1.39B
P/E ttm
9.65
Fwd P/E
21.15
EPS ttm
2.97
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−59.34%
AMSC market-implied price distribution
AMSC Price at Expiry
21 OTM quotes · ATM IV 77.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 28.66
Expected price
29.21
forward 29.29
68% range
22–36
−23.5% / +26.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 17.68 | −38.3% |
| 16% | 21.92 | −23.5% |
| 25% | 24.08 | −16.0% |
| 50% (median) | 28.55 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 33.46 | +16.7% |
| 84% | 36.17 | +26.2% |
| 95% | 43.25 | +50.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (30.09) | 41% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (31.53) | 34% |
| Down 5% or more (27.23) | 42% |
| Down 10% or more (25.79) | 34% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 34%, 1.0× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.