AMAR3.SA
LOJAS MARISAON NMClosedAMAR3.SA discounted cash flow valuation
AMAR3.SA Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 10.7% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against -5.0% in this model.
Model: -5.0% from 3-yr revenue CAGR (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 8.24% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | BRL 234.69M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (53% of EV) | BRL 264.45M |
| Enterprise value | BRL 499.14M |
| + Cash & investments | BRL 109.90M |
| − Total debt | −BRL 937.46M |
| Equity value | −BRL 328.42M |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 513.49M |
| Value per share | BRL -0.6396 |
| Market cap | BRL 410.79M |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.75 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 8.97% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 34.0% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 69.5% |
| WACC | 8.24% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.24% | -0.3933 | -0.2906 | -0.1605 | 0.009754 | 0.2421 |
| 7.24% | -0.5938 | -0.5288 | -0.4502 | -0.3530 | -0.2299 |
| 8.24% | -0.7353 | -0.6913 | -0.6396 | -0.5781 | -0.5037 |
| 9.24% | -0.8406 | -0.8093 | -0.7733 | -0.7316 | -0.6827 |
| 10.24% | -0.9221 | -0.8990 | -0.8729 | -0.8433 | -0.8092 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | BRL 43.37M | — | — |
| Year 1 | -5.0% | BRL 41.20M | 0.924 | BRL 38.06M |
| Year 2 | -5.0% | BRL 39.14M | 0.854 | BRL 33.41M |
| Year 3 | -5.0% | BRL 37.18M | 0.789 | BRL 29.32M |
| Year 4 | -5.0% | BRL 35.32M | 0.729 | BRL 25.73M |
| Year 5 | -5.0% | BRL 33.56M | 0.673 | BRL 22.59M |
| Year 6 | -3.5% | BRL 32.38M | 0.622 | BRL 20.14M |
| Year 7 | -2.0% | BRL 31.74M | 0.574 | BRL 18.23M |
| Year 8 | -0.5% | BRL 31.58M | 0.531 | BRL 16.76M |
| Year 9 | 1.0% | BRL 31.89M | 0.490 | BRL 15.64M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | BRL 32.69M | 0.453 | BRL 14.81M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.