AIRR
First Trust RBA American IndustOpen99.06−3.56 −3.47%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 14, 13:48 ET · 15m delay
Open
101.11
Prev close
102.62
Day range
99.05101.79
52-week range
90.51135.05
Volume
640.71K0.86×
P/E ttm
24.27
EPS ttm
4.08
Div yield
0.09%
From 52w high
−26.65%
AIRR market-implied price distribution
AIRR Price at Expiry
24 OTM quotes · ATM IV 36.2%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
73%
spot 99.06
Expected price
107.87
forward 106.79
68% range
92–117
−7.4% / +17.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 80.77 | −18.5% |
| 16% | 91.75 | −7.4% |
| 25% | 98.17 | −0.9% |
| 50% (median) | 105.65 | +6.7% |
| 75% | 112.31 | +13.4% |
| 84% | 116.74 | +17.9% |
| 95% | 163.38 | +64.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (104.01) | 57% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (108.97) | 36% |
| Down 5% or more (94.11) | 19% |
| Down 10% or more (89.15) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 1.9× the 6.6% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.