AIA
iShares Asia 50 ETFClosed136.98−1.91 −1.38%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 136.98 0.00%
Open
135.59
Prev close
138.89
Day range
135.59137.01
52-week range
90.95150.83
Volume
267.61K0.70×
P/E ttm
13.89
EPS ttm
9.86
Div yield
0.88%
From 52w high
−9.18%
AIA market-implied price distribution
AIA Price at Expiry
20 OTM quotes · ATM IV 29.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
82%
spot 136.98
Expected price
148.36
forward 141.97
68% range
136–156
−0.7% / +13.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 126.30 | −7.8% |
| 16% | 136.09 | −0.7% |
| 25% | 139.52 | +1.9% |
| 50% (median) | 145.45 | +6.2% |
| 75% | 151.53 | +10.6% |
| 84% | 155.68 | +13.7% |
| 95% | 203.34 | +48.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (143.83) | 58% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (150.68) | 28% |
| Down 5% or more (130.13) | 7.7% |
| Down 10% or more (123.28) | 3.6% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 3.6%, 0.5× the 7.2% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.