ACWI
iShares MSCI ACWI ETFClosed160.69+0.06 +0.04%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 160.69 0.00%
Open
160.64
Prev close
160.63
Day range
160.19160.80
52-week range
133.65162.80
Volume
5.75M2.55×
P/E ttm
20.89
EPS ttm
7.69
Div yield
1.41%
From 52w high
−1.30%
ACWI market-implied price distribution
ACWI Price at Expiry
19 OTM quotes · ATM IV 18.7%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 160.69
Expected price
159.97
forward 160.19
68% range
152–169
−5.4% / +5.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 142.50 | −11.3% |
| 16% | 152.03 | −5.4% |
| 25% | 154.66 | −3.8% |
| 50% (median) | 159.47 | −0.8% |
| 75% | 165.17 | +2.8% |
| 84% | 169.35 | +5.4% |
| 95% | 176.80 | +10.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (168.72) | 17% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (176.76) | 5.0% |
| Down 5% or more (152.66) | 18% |
| Down 10% or more (144.62) | 6.5% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 6.5%, 1.4× the 4.7% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.