AAXJ
iShares MSCI All Country Asia eClosed113.62−0.75 −0.66%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
112.59
Prev close
114.37
Day range
112.59113.64
52-week range
87.98124.89
Volume
504.63K1.14×
P/E ttm
14.73
EPS ttm
7.71
Div yield
1.33%
From 52w high
−9.02%
AAXJ market-implied price distribution
AAXJ Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 94.1%
Days to expiry
3
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
P(finish above spot)
21%
spot 113.62
Expected price
113.78
forward 113.65
68% range
109–125
−4.4% / +10.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 104.63 | −7.9% |
| 16% | 108.65 | −4.4% |
| 25% | 110.74 | −2.5% |
| 50% (median) | 110.99 | −2.3% |
| 75% | 111.15 | −2.2% |
| 84% | 125.00 | +10.0% |
| 95% | 131.30 | +15.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (119.30) | 21% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (124.98) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (107.94) | 13% |
| Down 10% or more (102.26) | 2.0% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 2.0%, 0.2× the 9.4% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.