ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.Open20.69+0.24 +1.17%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 13:42 ET · 20m delay
Open
20.70
Prev close
20.45
Day range
20.5820.72
52-week range
18.1126.20
Volume
641.34K0.28×
Mkt cap
15.47B
P/E ttm
11.31
Fwd P/E
9.23
EPS ttm
1.83
Div yield
3.37%
Earnings
Aug 18, 2026
From 52w high
−21.03%
ZTO market-implied price distribution
ZTO Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 49.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
64%
spot 20.69
Expected price
20.78
forward 20.78
68% range
16–23
−20.8% / +11.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 14.94 | −27.8% |
| 16% | 16.38 | −20.8% |
| 25% | 18.17 | −12.2% |
| 50% (median) | 22.41 | +8.3% |
| 75% | 23.01 | +11.2% |
| 84% | 23.05 | +11.4% |
| 95% | 24.46 | +18.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (21.72) | 57% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (22.76) | 44% |
| Down 5% or more (19.66) | 32% |
| Down 10% or more (18.62) | 27% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 1.0× the 27% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.