ZLAB
Zai Lab LimitedOpen23.01−1.59 −6.45%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 12:39 ET · 15m delay
Open
24.24
Prev close
24.59
Day range
22.9124.29
52-week range
15.9630.18
Volume
252.73K0.27×
Mkt cap
2.58B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-10.90
EPS ttm
-1.70
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−23.77%
ZLAB market-implied price distribution
ZLAB Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 85.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
53%
spot 23.01
Expected price
24.54
forward 24.40
68% range
17–31
−26.8% / +34.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 13.34 | −42.0% |
| 16% | 16.84 | −26.8% |
| 25% | 19.44 | −15.5% |
| 50% (median) | 23.48 | +2.1% |
| 75% | 27.87 | +21.2% |
| 84% | 30.82 | +34.0% |
| 95% | 40.58 | +76.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (24.16) | 45% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (25.31) | 38% |
| Down 5% or more (21.85) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (20.70) | 32% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 32%, 1.0× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.