Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
52.47
−15.6%
16%
56.98
−8.3%
25%
58.77
−5.4%
50% (median)
62.19
+0.1%
75%
65.73
+5.8%
84%
67.74
+9.0%
95%
74.63
+20.1%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (65.26)
28%
Up 10% or more (68.37)
14%
Down 5% or more (59.05)
27%
Down 10% or more (55.94)
12%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 0.7× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.