Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 21.49 | −29.5% |
| 16% | 24.67 | −19.1% |
| 25% | 27.23 | −10.7% |
| 50% (median) | 32.58 | +6.8% |
| 75% | 34.41 | +12.8% |
| 84% | 34.76 | +14.0% |
| 95% | 34.99 | +14.7% |
| Up 5% or more (32.03) | 54% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (33.55) | 40% |
| Down 5% or more (28.97) | 31% |
| Down 10% or more (27.45) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 1.0× the 26% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.